Performance
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The tech portfolio by its nature is more volatile than others we offer. As Bogie mentioned 10% odd off of its all time high. We have seen this many many times before and we will continue to experience periods of volatility. Whenever new highs are reached you always find a proliferation of media, social media/vested interest 'opinions' resurface to influence prices. The businesses we hold are sound, are executing at an elite operational level and earning record profits. That is what matters long term. The day to day whilst irritating(often) are part of investing.
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Just thought I’d check in and see what’s going on currently. Taking recent withdrawals into account, and a small move to cash, my pot nevertheless seems to be on a not-insignificant downward trajectory just now. Any thoughts on that? Play the long game, etc etc, I know of course, but just seems to have taken a bit of a hit recently?
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Hi Cappo, this thread is a good historical record of the reasons/logic behind the shifts over time. Recently it’s FUD. Google reported fantastic results, mentioned. Apex and the stock fell. You will be a significant move up today based on yesterday. Volatility in play but fundamentals/earnings/growth all rock solid. Apple fell a bit after reporting-imo that was bound to happen. The stock was at a very recent ATH. Klac unloved the past 2 weeks despite record results.
Amazon just reported a monster last night and popped, msft the same the prior day. Meta incurred a one time 2.1b legal settlement, operations beat. Not our first rodeo. -
You can choose any number of reasons why occasionally markets ‘lose their mind’, like sk Hynix trading at a 5 pe, reporting 557% growth and the headline is ‘they missed’. The only ‘miss’ was the opportunity. When a business grows at 557% you don’t get to say they missed anything when you’re valuing it at virtually nothing. A peg of .01.
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Back to the topic of markets losing their minds, and this recent talk of AI being about to destroy mankind and therefore badly in need of regulation isn't helping things. (And regulation by the US and China together - Really?)
I've read some sensible commentary about what's behind this and it just doesn't hang together; rather it looks like Amodei is just looking to make a name for himself and feather his own nest, and others who should know better are getting in behind him (Musk - I'm looking at you). However it isn't doing those share prices much good.
I know, I know; long game; we've all done very well since the start of the year; markets are irrational; but it's still getting my goat. If anyone has any sensible observations about when things might start going upwards again I'd love to hear them. However reliable and accurate crystal balls seem to be in short supply these days and the others are all just a load of ... well ... balls really.
This post isn't achieving anything, just allowing me to let off some steam. Thanks for reading.
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He simply wants regulation to stop a competitor releasing a better model without taking the steps that HE thinks are necessary. He has been vocal about regulation since 2024. Regulation will be very expensive and will hinder smaller labs too. At the same time he is also saying their models are seriously scary and all powerful.
The bottom line is, and we discussed it a few months ago(inflection point coming) GPT-Astra is very capable and this is the tip of the iceberg. AI k*lling humanity is emotive clap-trap. No one is slowing down, investment is accelerating.
I would agree that the very best models could do a lot of damage if used the wrong way. If you look back in history, vested interest tried to stop automobiles, trains, planes, computers.
Insofar as performance our top portfolios are still up over 30% this year which is excellent. This is in addition to something in the order of 45% in 2025 and 50%+ in 2024 and 60% in 2023. As always prior returns are no indication of future returns.
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And today Edgewater research says checks show Anthropic has committed to buying 6.25 billion GB of DRAM in calendar 2027. As much as Nvidia and materially more than the memory market expects. Does look like they are 'slowing down'
Also samsung just raised prices again-which makes no sense bcos demand will surely fall
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Anyone watch those film with Arnie in
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Anyone watch those film with Arnie in
@Ducati996R said in Performance:
Anyone watch those film with Arnie in
Yes, perhaps in future they will look back on those as documentaries
...Musk already has production capacity for a million robots per year and expanding to 10 million at his plant in Texas ...and each one need hundreds of GB of memory.
I dont think global memory supply is going to be fulfilled for many years yet....