Micron Technology
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Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore said, today, that, after speaking with several purchasing contacts in the data centre space last week, the intensity of the memory shortages shows no signs of abating. He added that prices appear to be up at least 25% on a like-for-like basis from 2Q to 3Q.
This is above both Morgan Stanley’s and third-party estimates.
Moore also noted that longer-term concerns that the memory shortage will intensify in 2027 and again in 2028 remain as strong as ever. Morgan Stanley added that there is not enough memory relative to AI requirements and that it does not see this situation changing.
Notable quotes:
“Cloud customers are paying premiums to the expected 2Q price for six-week expedites; do we think those customers are paying those premia to stockpile memory in a warehouse?”
“AI is consuming so much DRAM that there isn’t enough left over for other sectors, and everywhere we look, we see indications that it is a true bottleneck. It’s holding back PC builds and smartphone builds.”
“Memory is not just constrained by AI demand—memory is increasingly one of the major primary constraints on AI demand, along with space and power.”
AK-Alas the short sellers have done a good job of convincing retail investors to offload their shares by aggressively pushing the glut narrative, coming next year. Imo we are in for a decade of shortages.
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I was just there-lucky it's now winter $45 sunscreen, $5 cans of beer but the national cakes looks cheap
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Looks like this CMXT is being used to give Micron a bloody nose …anything in it ?
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In CXMT causing mu a problem. No. But if you say it enough some believe it
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To add to the above.CXMT makes low end Dram for the domestic market. The money is in HBM, DDR5 and soon 6, plus enterprise flash, SSD. Reality, they will likely fail Apples validation for lower end Chinese iPhones. And no chance it will be allowed into the US. Almost nochance they will produce HBM and if they could, tiny volumes and even then won’t get into Western DC. The FUD is a Burry/short narrative. Micron is sold out for 2-3 years and imo will see a decade of surplus growth.
I see the volatility as nothing more than opportunistic traders, gamblers pushing it around.
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SK Hynix Q2 2026 Earnings Summary (Demand & Supply)SK Hynix reported record Q2 results with revenue of ~$54.1 billion (+51% QoQ) and operating profit of ~$41.6 billion (+61% QoQ), driven by strong AI demand and tight supply.
Demand: Robust and structural. AI infrastructure investments continue, broadening needs for HBM, server DRAM (agentic AI), and enterprise SSDs. The company expects DRAM demand to grow mid-20% YoY and NAND high-teens % YoY in 2026. Momentum is supported by AI service revenues, with no signs of slowdown.
Supply: Remains constrained. Customer demand exceeds capacity, especially for advanced products. Q3 guidance: DRAM bit shipments +~10% QoQ; NAND +low-single-digit % QoQ. Supply-demand balance unlikely to ease soon due to process complexity and long fab lead times.
Finalised LTAs with ~10 key customers for stability. Raising 2026 CapEx to high-KRW 40T range (~$28–32 billion) to accelerate capacity (HBM4 ramp, new facilities). Timely supply is a core competitive advantage.
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Recent reports that the US government may investigate Chinese memory maker CXMT have significantly reduced the likelihood of Apple receiving approval to use its DRAM chips. US lawmakers are reportedly concerned about CXMT's alleged links to the Chinese military and broader national security implications, placing the company under increased political scrutiny.
Apple has explored sourcing DRAM from CXMT, particularly for iPhones sold in China, to reduce costs and diversify its supply chain. However, any approval would now face a far more difficult political environment.
The Trump administration would need to balance Apple's commercial interests against concerns over technology security, supply chain resilience and the strategic importance of supporting US semiconductor manufacturers.
Several outcomes remain possible. The administration could reject Apple's request entirely, permit CXMT memory only in devices sold exclusively within China, or impose strict conditions that severely limit its use. Given the current climate, broad approval appears considerably less likely than it did only weeks ago.
For existing memory suppliers such as Micron, Samsung and SK hynix, these developments are potentially positive. If Apple is unable to source meaningful volumes from CXMT, demand is more likely to remain with established suppliers. While the situation remains fluid, the latest developments suggest any significant disruption to the global DRAM market has become less probable in the near term.
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It’s largely irrelevant even if they get approval. Wafers are scarce. That’s what the hard of thinking don’t get. You’ve got a lot of retail ‘investors’ who are oblivious to the facts. Cxmt control 7% of the ‘dumb’ dram commodity segment. If micron see any increase in supply in that area they’ll simply deploy those wafers elsewhere. Cxmt can not produce ai/dc memory and won’t for ‘years’ and when/if they do they won’t get 1 chip into a western dc. Obvious why but it creates a nice fantasy story for people like Burry to induce weak hands to sell.
Sanjay will prove them wrong, again, soon. All that matters is earnings. Which are growing very rapidly and are very durable.
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