General News
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Headline CPI(US) holds at +2.4% Y/Y in February, as expected.
Solid gains today as a result
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Breaking- US/Iran in talks to end hostilities.
Futures swung 700 points to +500
Oil plunges to $90 -
I get your message requesting this to be apolitical, but it does feel rather like market manipulation from the US President. No views on that?
@mikeiow I don’t think it “feels like” that - it’s blatantly obviously the case and is so for every idiotic initiative he embarks upon.
Have you seen the charts floating about which detail billions in trades in the few short minutes preceding his announcements? Both ways, buying and selling, depending on what the announcement is.
It’s insider dealing on an industrial scale.
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'stuff' like that always happens-I would think dozens if not 100s of people knew and know about any impending comms. You can draw your own conclusions but if you think DT himself makes a few calls to tip off a trader or an institution, I think that is just fantasy-regardless, we have no influence over these or any other Tump events and it doesn't change the investment decisions.
It would appear for now things are derisking.
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Mines also not looking it's best at the moment,
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Yeah, if someone can let me know when it's safe to look again...
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It's never nice to see red but as has been said before quality comes back. We are negative YTD however doing far better than others-as has been the case for the past several years.
Cobens tech portfolio is -4.7% YTD
Nadaq circa -10%
Fundsmith -11.5%
Cathy Wood Innovation -15%
Biff Tanner Tech circa -20% to -23%Cobens Tech 1 Yr +45%
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It's never nice to see red but as has been said before quality comes back. We are negative YTD however doing far better than others-as has been the case for the past several years.
Cobens tech portfolio is -4.7% YTD
Nadaq circa -10%
Fundsmith -11.5%
Cathy Wood Innovation -15%
Biff Tanner Tech circa -20% to -23%Cobens Tech 1 Yr +45%
@Adam-Kay said in General News:
It's never nice to see red but as has been said before quality comes back. We are negative YTD however doing far better than others-as has been the case for the past several years.
Cobens tech portfolio is -4.7% YTD
Nadaq circa -10%
Fundsmith -11.5%
Cathy Wood Innovation -15%
Biff Tanner Tech circa -20% to -23%Cobens Tech 1 Yr +45%
PHE?
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Hi O,
PHE is -6.99% YTD
Nest Sharia -4% -
Thanks. Not as bad as I had thought.
For right or wrong, I see PHE as analogous to Fundsmith, but Fundsmith has done significantly badly in the last 18 months. The fact that it's down 11% on the start of the year compared to PHE down 6.99% shows that there are indeed differences.
I have a reasonable chunk in Fundsmith. As much as possible will be coming out as soon as the tax year rolls 'round.
Thanks again for your input Adam
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Futures up almost 900 points and oil plummets 20%
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Bodes well for 'Memory'
Samsung Q1 2026 Results Summary (preliminary)Record-breaking quarter: Operating profit of 57.2 trillion won (~$38 billion) — 8x higher than Q1 2025 (up 755%). This already exceeds Samsung’s full-year 2025 operating profit.
Memory is driving almost all of it
The memory business (mainly DRAM + NAND, including HBM for AI) accounted for the vast majority of profits — estimates put it at ~90-95% of total operating profit (around 54 trillion won). Traditional DRAM and NAND prices have surged sharply due to AI data centre demand outstripping supply. HBM is growing fast but still a smaller portion for now. Non-memory divisions (logic chips, mobile, etc.) contributed very little or were in the red.Outlook: Samsung Expects Continuation for Multiple Years — Samsung views this as the early-to-mid stage of a structural AI-driven memory supercycle, not a short-term spike.Executives have described it as an "unprecedented supercycle" and expect strong AI memory demand to continue throughout 2026 and beyond.
They are actively negotiating multi-year (3–5 year) supply contracts with major customers to lock in demand and manage the long-term shortage.Analysts (post-Q1 results) are raising forecasts significantly: e.g., full-year 2026 operating profit 327 trillion won, and even higher (417–488 trillion won) in 2027. Many see the cycle extending well into 2027–2028.
Bottom line: Samsung’s massive Q1 blowout is overwhelmingly memory/AI-driven, and both the company and analysts expect this momentum to persist for several years thanks to sustained AI infrastructure buildout.
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Real risk to cybersecurity companies such as PANW. We sold the holding a year ago for $186 and used the proceeds to invest in AVGO. Since then PANW is down 10% and AVGO +60%
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As they say, don't look at the score board-look at what's going on, on the field! Business is booming
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The Beginning of Scarcity in AI
For the first time since the 2000s, technology companies are confronting the limits of their supply chain.
GPU rental prices for Nvidia's Blackwell chips hit $4.08 per hour this week, up 48% from $2.75 just two months ago. CoreWeave raised prices 20% & extended minimum contracts from one year to three.
"We're making some very tough trades at the moment on things we're not pursuing because we don't have enough compute." - Sarah Friar, OpenAI CFO
This scarcity is already reshaping access. Anthropic has limited its newest model to roughly forty organizations. Access to the bleeding edge is becoming a gated privilege, for both capacity & security.
If the largest AI companies are having problems, startups face a tougher proposition. Five hallmarks define this era :
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Relationship Based Selling : State-of-the-art models may no longer be open to everyone as providers limit access to their most profitable or strategic customers.
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AI to the Highest Bidder : Even when they do become available, SOTA models may become prohibitively expensive. Companies that can raise large amounts of capital or generate strong profits will have an advantage.
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Available but Slow : Even if you can pay, there may not be guarantees the models will be fast.
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Inflationary Commodity : This imbalance will inevitably drive prices higher as demand compounds against a fixed supply. Procurement & margin management will become key disciplines in software companies.
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Forced Diversification : Developers will be forced to look elsewhere, from smaller models to on-premise deployments, until energy infrastructure & data center buildouts catch up, which could take years.
The age of abundant AI is over, & it will remain so for years.
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