General News
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Given his track record I won't be taking any lessons from AB. He has concerns? I have concerns about his performance and that of the government-and last time I looked the UK isn't really participating. Another missed opportunity.
If you read what he says, 'AI might transform the world' but there's a frenzy-really. 25X PE a frenzy. And he might have to implement policy to deal with it. Like what, Andrew? In summary he says it might be transformative, it might not. Very useful.
It's as useful as 'The Dean of valuation' expertise in saying Nvidia was worth $23/share
. 2024 to 2033 projected revenues. Only problem being his 2033 revenue will be exceeded in 2026 and he used an operating margin of 40% when it's actually 65%. You too can spend 100k a year to send your kids to his University and listen to the learned professor. I saved his research papers in 2023 as I had a hunch it wouldnt age well. He has continued to double down even to this day calling Nvidia 'priced at insanity'. What many dont know is he owned the stock and sold it in 2023. He's like so many others (Cathie Wood) who sold out and now spend their time throwing shade on the company, making themselves look stupid. Wood has destroyed more capital than any other asset manager in recent history by taking reckless moon-shots that pay off for 5 minutes then get obliterated.The takeaway being, everyone has an opinion but don't listen to anyone with an axe to grind or is holding themselves out to be an expert when the reality is they have no experience whatsoever. What expertise gives the BOE governor or a finance lecturer the authority to speak on any business.
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Taking in others opinions can be a positive but first you need to assess whether that opinion is based on any actual knowledge/expertise and whether they are biased. Take Semi Analysis. They favour Taiwan over US companies and imo actively engage with miscreants, writing negative spin to earn revenues. If you didn't know that you could be swayed. And then you have posters on forums like PH, 1% actual knowledge and 99% made up nonsense(attention seeking). Fake Gurus with forums can pull in a few easily lead.“Hello, McFly! Anybody home?” – Biff Tannen. Remember Biff, he reinvented himself as a Fund manager using his almanac.
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US nonfarm payrolls rose by 130K in January, comfortably beating the +70K consensus and well up from December’s +48K, which was revised slightly down from the initial +50K estimate, according to figures out Wednesday from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.
Futures up
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A good example of a bubble/hype meeting reality.
AppLovin didn’t just miss expectations — it basically pulled a McLovin.
Then delivers 5% QoQ guide growth like it’s trying to buy one beer with a fake Hawaii ID. (Superbad)-the name fitsParabolic blow off tops are painful.
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A good example of a bubble/hype meeting reality.
AppLovin didn’t just miss expectations — it basically pulled a McLovin.
Then delivers 5% QoQ guide growth like it’s trying to buy one beer with a fake Hawaii ID. (Superbad)-the name fitsParabolic blow off tops are painful.
@Adam-Kay said in General News:
A good example of a bubble/hype meeting reality.
AppLovin didn’t just miss expectations — it basically pulled a McLovin.
Then delivers 5% QoQ guide growth like it’s trying to buy one beer with a fake Hawaii ID. (Superbad)-the name fitsParabolic blow off tops are painful.
i have no idea what any of this means....
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AppLovin is a stock which flew on hype to extreme valuations and crashed when reality bit.
McLovin is a movie fictional character-in keeping with my movie tag line theme
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“I’m back.” — The Matrix Reloaded (2003) – Agent Smith
... like it’s trying to buy one beer with a fake Hawaii ID.
I seem to have logged on to the film appreciation forum by mistake ....
@2BToo said in General News:
“I’m back.” — The Matrix Reloaded (2003) – Agent Smith
... like it’s trying to buy one beer with a fake Hawaii ID.
I seem to have logged on to the film appreciation forum by mistake ....
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Applied Materials (AMAT) reported last night and whilst we don't hold the stock, they added some nice commentary/weight to the Accelerator growth story. The evidence from operators at the coal face are all saying the same thing. Executives who have direct contact with their customers and suppliers-everyone in the supply chain. Consistent, planning and executing for massive growth.
Takeaway-while the market is focussed on inflation and the CPI the greatest infrastructure project in history is being built under its nose. We will take the evidence based approach all day long.
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some memory pricing changes(ASP). NB-this is the approx change(increase) since the end of 2025! The impact on gross margins and revenue will be profound. Too many moving parts and their timing to even remotely estimate Microns current quarter. Suffice to say they did not factor in 'this much'. Exciting times and Micron is the one to watch in 2026!
And one more thought-if customer demand is this great, what does that say for the end product(Racks) that this memory is used in? It can only be super-massive. Who else might be the main beneficiaries? Broadcom, Nvidia being the big suppliers.
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But everyone keeps telling us about this AI bubble…
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There probably is a bubble for the hundreds of "AI" companies that have sprung up doing anything AI related and getting crazy valuations ....and many of them will not be around in a few years. Its hard to argue with the facts that hundreds of billions is being invested by the industry giants in the biggest datacentre build out in history. The race between China and USA for global dominance in AI continues at an increasing pace
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100%-many names that are not really moving the needle but 'AI' so speculators bid them up-very fast burn and fizzle out.
All you need to do is step back and ask yourself why GOOG/MSFT CEOs who are seasoned professionals at the top of their game, have suddenly stepped on the gas. Are they gambling OR have they seen a step change in LLM ability? Does anyone believe they are risking a trillion dollars on FOMO. Does anyone believe they will share their skunk-works latest break throughs with Jim Cramer. I trust these executives to make the right decisions because they have been executing at an elite level for 20 years. I believe they know the progress is profound and they realise that a once in a lifetime opportunity is upon them. And in this game, you snooze you will lose. Game on!
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But everyone keeps telling us about this AI bubble…
@Ducati996R said in General News:
But everyone keeps telling us about this AI bubble…
I think they meant an AI Buble (Michael)
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You do read some really stupid comments along the way. 'Expert A' said, all AI is, is all the information ever created by humans so it cant create anything new, just repeat it. That's all I needed to read(Bin!). Just a thought, can any human or 100k humans digest all that knowledge and infer anything new?
AI doesn't need to reach super human levels to be immensely useful, close to humans will be good enough to change the way we live and generate many many trillions for those that control it.
And as an aside I think memory defines the species, without which you're lost. So silicon memory imo will be more important that the GPU as we progress because without it AI can not function. I expect most of us to own or rent our own agent which will retain everything you allow it too, for life and continuously learn how to serve your needs. It will need a lot of memory for that!
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News on inflation- imagine the tsunami if it had been 0.00001% higher
Happy FridayThe U.S. Consumer Price Index crept up 0.2% M/M in January, a cooler pace than the +0.3% consensus and slowing from +0.3% in December, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.
On a Y/Y basis, that amounts to a 2.4% increase in January, also lower than the +2.5% consensus and +2.7% in December.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.3% M/M, in line with the +0.3% consensus and slightly hotter than the +0.2% pace in December. On a Y/Y basis, that comes to 2.5%, in line with consensus and down from 2.6% in December.
Overall, the numbers indicate that inflation appears to be edging closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
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For anyone interested, here is an interview with the Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei. It discusses AI diffusion and the time line to AGI-a lot sooner than you think (1-2 years away) 'a country of geniuses in the DC'. Fascinating. Do we have enough tech
What he is saying supports the conclusions/ideas we have discussed very recently, that the hyperscalers know a break through is imminent and they're stepping on the gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1E9IZfvGMA
version on X. https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/2022357801276690455?s=20
