General News

2BToo

Markets look to be heading upwards today, which is nice. Hopefully to be reflected in the numbers tomorrow.

Adam Kay

Yes, a nice rebound all round. Micron making a new ATH amongst a broad based reversion

mikeiow

Saw an interesting graph just now - shows US job openings and the value of the S&P 500.
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1or18rc/oc_us_job_openings_jtsjol_vs_sp_500_with_vertical
The vertical line shows the release date of ChatGPT.
Jobs no longer move in line with the stock market. Fewer workers needed to create growth 🫣

Adam Kay

Seeing as it’s Reddit-tin foul hat central, I bit. My thoughts… the chart looks interesting at first glance, but it’s pretty misleading once you dig into it. The main issue is that it implies ChatGPT’s release somehow caused the drop in US job openings or the rise in the S&P 500, when there’s absolutely no evidence of that.

Correlation isn’t causation, and just because two things happen around the same time doesn’t mean one caused the other.
Both job openings and the stock market are influenced by a huge range of factors — things like interest rate hikes, inflation, and post-pandemic adjustments — all of which were already shaping the economy before ChatGPT came out. Plotting two upward (or downward) trending lines together often makes them look related when they’re not, especially when each one uses its own scale.

It’s a visual supporting a narrative. it’s basically just a coincidence dressed up as a correlation. The scales are mathematically wrong too.

mikeiow

Ah, one for the old “spurious correlations”, perhaps - https://web.archive.org/web/20140509212006/http://tylervigen.com
Marriage rates in Alabama correlates with Murders with a Blunt Object

Adam Kay

Michael Burry has liquidated everything in his Scion Capital fund and returned money to all investors. He has quit. Burry stated 'scion returns now and for some time have been out of step with the market'. In 'short' he admits to losing a lot of money.

2BToo

@Adam-Kay said in General News:

Michael Burry has liquidated everything in his Scion Capital fund and returned money to all investors. He has quit. Burry stated 'scion returns now and for some time have been out of step with the market'. In 'short' he admits to losing a lot of money.

Hang on - is this the fella that just shorted NVDA (again)?

Jason Knowles

Is this good or bad news.

Renmure Jim

@Jason-Knowles said in General News:

Is this good or bad news.
^^ ditto

Adam Kay

Hi positions are disclosed in arrears so could be 6 months old and will be at least 3. He didn't short the stock, he purchased PUT contracts. There is a difference but yes he was negative on Nvidia.

To Jason, I'm making the point that this 'expert' has been wrong more times than right and he's capitulated. Coupled with my general view that Short sellers are parasites.

Step 1. enter short
step 2. Produce often false claims
step 3. tell the world

and depending on your fame, it can often be that alone that causes the stock to fall.

Burry too made some pretty dodgy claims, suggesting longer asset lives on GPU's was manipulating earnings. That would be true if it were not for the fact that 4 year old GPUs are still fully utilised and being rented for absolute top dollar. See, if you stretch the life, the depreciation(expense) to write it down, is less and bingo, more 'profit'.

All derivatives are particularly risky because they can expose you to extreme leverage. Ask VW/Porsche about that

Jason Knowles

Thanks for your explanation, tech looks to be getting a bit of a hard time so far today.

Adam Kay

It’s had a good month, year

2BToo

Tangentially relevant perhaps, but going short on something has to be hugely risky.

If I invest in something the MOST I can lose is the cost of thing I bought. The potential gains are unlimited (my £1 share may go up to £10, or £1,000,000, or higher ...)

If I buy something with the intention of shorting it then the MOST I can gain is the value of the thing in question (my £1 share could drop to £0.00, in which case I've gained £1), but my potential losses are limitless.

Always strikes me as a risky game to play. Plus I'm not clever enough to really understand it ...

Adam Kay

Nice rebound to end the week-good weekend to all

Jason Knowles

Agree nice to see a bit of positive news at the end of the week, lets hope next week continues.
Wishing all a good weekend.

Adam Kay

Cappo

Just curious - what rebounded at the end of last week? My pot took a dive last week, including Friday.

Jason Knowles

My ph tech went up a bit my other 2 portfolios went down, lets see how it goes this week.

Jason Knowles

Just to add overall last week i was slightly up.

2BToo

I guess that, given that the different portfolios perform differently then whether your personal outlook bumped up or down was a matter of your personal distribution.

FWIW, I was down (heavily) overall last week but it nudged up slightly from Thursday to Friday (i.e from Friday to Saturday results.) But, as I so often bore everyone with, it's a long game.