Busy couple of weeks on results front
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The future of warefare
Reminds me of this dramatic “demo”, now 7 years old
https://youtu.be/TlO2gcs1YvMSee https://autonomousweapons.org for more…
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The Wall Street Journal is claiming that the Trump administration won't impose tariffs on Taiwan Semiconductors-given the scale of committed US investment. It doesn't mean they're correct-even they like a bit of fake news however I've always thought it would be resolved based on the evidence, being massive new investment and more recently Jensen Huang also stated that he didn't think the impact would be anything more than minor (whatever the outcome is). He would know more than most.
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The disconnect between markets and reality-and why one should have confidence in business being positive.
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Some relevant news over the weekend:
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Gigabyte Technology, a mid size Taiwan server maker said they are sold for AI server through all of 2025 and mid way into 2026. They have committed to expand their manufacturing capacity in Brazil while its Germany, US and Malaysia plants will open later this year.
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TSMC said it will finish all planned fabrication plants as its expansion plans are unchanged.
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Foxconn just reported record revenue due to 'strong pull for AI related products. Foxconn expects momentum to continue'
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Taiwan President William Lai has offered the U.S zero tariffs as a basis for opening talks. Adding he will remove all barriers and increase investment in the U.S.
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Trump stated on Sunday that he is open to talks with China but said China needs to address their surplus
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Alphabet reiterated plans to spend about US$75 billion this year to build out data centre capacity, as “the opportunity with AI is as big as it gets,” said CEO Sundar Pichai, at the Google Cloud Next 2025 conference.
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported a nearly 42% surge in Q1 revenue, fueled by strong demand for AI servers
They also split out March(month) which was +46% i.e accelerating
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Australia has rejected China's offer to "join hands" and respond to the escalating trade war, after U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese goods.
"We're not going to be holding hands with China in respect to any contest that's going on in the world," Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles told Sky News Australia.
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I suspect anyone who 'joins hands' with China will get their arm broken by the U.S
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A new list of goods to be exempted from the latest round of tariffs on U.S. importers was released, and it includes smartphones, PCs, servers, and other technology goods, many of which are assembled in China.
Apple is the clear, MU memory and 'other components' found in Servers
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What an utter jerk he is though, just faffing around with stuff as it enters his tiny brain/suits him and his cronies personally. Next thing, he’ll find out that the sauce in his cheeseburger is made in China and he’ll exempt that as well. Talk about fuelling the uncertainty.
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We all understand the frustration, Cappo. We've held 3 Investment Comm meetings over the past 3 weeks but ultimately came to the conclusion we would wait and see. Not because doing nothing was the easy option, but we believed we held quality, the man would likely pivot in short order (and what next).
The golden rule with investing, you sell when:
- You find a better opportunity for your capital
- The factors which drove your investment in the first instance have materially changed with a degree of permanency.
We didn't see tariffs having a permanent effect.
Have a good weekend, all
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Material pops after hours on top of a solid day due to the U.S administration stating ‘ The president and the administration are setting the stage for a deal with China," she said to reporters(press sec). "Everyone involved wants to see a trade deal happen, and the ball is moving in the right direction."
We will see.
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He is slowly having to completely back down from his ludicrous TariffTheWorld
game 🫣
No doubt he will then claim total victory
& Wall Street has had a bunch of fun, & I fully believe some people on the inside have made a load of money off the back of the shenanigans
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Bizarre. -
Yep….its been one big cluster f,,k….mates rates for the big boys …
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Some progress
China Halts 125% Tariffs on Semiconductor from the United States
According to the customs declaration system "Single Window" on April 24, 2025, the declared tax calculation shows that customs will cease the additional 125% tariff on integrated circuits originating from the United States.
For other goods, the additional 125% tariff will still temporarily follow the stipulations in Tax Commission Announcement No. 6 of 2025
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Apple plans to shift assembly of all iPhones sold in the U.S. to India starting next year — from the FT.
All sounds like a lot to me and may not be an issue given movement on tariffs negotiations-although that too could change (again)
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Reported by CNBC yesterday and a great example of the fake news which circulates to manipulate investors.
Amazon and Nvidia executives said Thursday that the construction of artificial intelligence data centres is not slowing down, as recession fears have some investors questioning whether tech companies will pull back on some of their plans.
“There’s been really no significant change,” Kevin Miller, Amazon’s vice president of global data centres, said at a conference organised by the Hamm Institute for American Energy. “We continue to see very strong demand**, and we’re looking both in the next couple years as well as long term and seeing the numbers only going up.”**
The comments run contrary to worrying buzz building on Wall Street about tech companies changing data centre buildout plans. Wells Fargo analysts said Monday that Amazon Web Services is pausing some leases on data centre commitments, citing industry sources. (fake)The magnitude of the pause was unclear, the analysts said, but the comments raised fears that Amazon was doing something similar to Microsoft’s recent move to pull back on some early stage projects. This too was fake-MSFT have cancelled some DC projects simply because OpenAI is now self reliant. Meta and GOOG assumed the lease obligations Msft walked away from but strangely committed that fact. I guess it didn't fit the 'fear' narrative.
Miller(the boss at AMZN DC)said “there’s been little tea leaf reading and extrapolating to strange results” about Amazon’s plans. In other words-nonsense
Nvidia is also not seeing signs of a slowdown, said Josh Parker, the chipmaker’s senior director of corporate sustainability.
“We haven’t seen a pullback,” Parker said. China’s artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek sparked a sell-off in power stocks earlier this year as investors worried that its artificial intelligence model is more efficient and data centers might need as much energy as originally anticipated.
But Parker said Nvidia sees compute and energy demand only rising due to AI, describing the reaction to DeepSeek as “kneejerk.” Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark said 50 gigawatts of new power capacity will be needed by 2027 to support AI. That is the equivalent of about 50 new nuclear plants. Note 50GW is an insane amount of power. Equiv to $2.5T in AI infrastructure spending
“Anthropic and the other AI companies, what we’re seeing is tremendous growth in the need for new baseload power. We’re seeing unprecedented growth,” Clark said.
The executives were speaking at a gathering of tech and energy companies at a conference in Oklahoma City organised by the Hamm Institute to discuss how the U.S. can address the growing energy needs for AI. There is a growing consensus in both industries that natural gas will be needed to meet the power needs.